Decentralised Prediction Markets Explained: Polymarket Events, Web3 Login and the Limits of the Signal
You are following a major election, an interest-rate decision or a crypto event from Germany and notice that a Polymarket contract trades at $0.64. The tempting interpretation is simple: “The market says there is a 64% chance.” That is a useful starting point, but not the whole story. The price is also shaped by liquidity, …